Oh, Those Pesky Little Polls

A surprising report was revealed in The Independent yesterday that Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of data-driven news outlet FiveThirtyEight,

described RFK Jr’s endorsement the “most important” of the race so far.

Not even the Taylor Swift endorsement of the Kamster moved the needle as much as the Kennedy endorsement did for Donald Trump. If you recall, Nate Silver has a well-known success rate in his predictions.

Silver said that RFK Jr’s move coincided with a slight dip in Harris’s polling. “Those voters are lost. That might have mattered a fair bit,” the pollster said, before clarifying a “fair bit” meant about half a point.

Despite more than 400,000 voters clicking on Swift’s link to the voter registration site vote.gov in the immediate aftermath, the singer’s endorsement failed to move the dial, Silver said.

“The biggest pop star in the world endorses you and you can barely see any difference in the polls,” he said.

When you consider all of the polling this election has shown to be in flux, this also can create doubt. However, Nate Silver must be considered as accurate as any other.

And ultimately, in thirty-two days, the only poll that matters this election cycle will take place. Then, we can look back and see which one was the most accurate.

I am betting on Nate Silver.

On To the NLDS!!

It is an amazing game, baseball.

While there is a pitch clock and batters must be ready to hit, it is still a game played until both teams get all twenty-seven outs that they are entitled to. There is no clock to wind down until the game is over, like football, basketball or hockey.

 

That is one of the joys I love about this game.

You know what else I love? When my team starts out at 0 and 5, are 22 and 33 in Memorial Day and end up in the playoffs when no one gave them a shot on June 1.

And now, the Mets are going to round two of the playoffs. 

Milwaukee was no pushover, and they looked like they were going to win it with three outs to go. But like I said, each team is entitled to twenty-seven outs.

Down 2 to 0 when they came up in the 9th in a classic pitchers’ duel, they rallied, with their home run hero delivering the most important home run he hit all season. Pete Alonso, asleep and in a funk since September 19, hit a three-run homer making the score 3 to 2. Two batters later, Starling Marte drove in the insurance run.

Deservedly, Edwin Diaz got the win and David Peterson, generally a starter, had an Orel Herseiser moment, and got the save. Very fitting, indeed!!

Now, it is on to Philadelphia to play another sixty-two season nemesis, the Phillies. They have a one-day rest day to travel and start round two on Saturday at 4 PM. And then back to Flushing on Tuesday.

For now, they, and we the fans, only need to concern ourselves with the game at hand. It is time to face the Philadelphia Phillies in a series which was not in the cards at the AL Star Break.

But then, since then, they have been playing playoff baseball. So they already know what to do and what is at stake. No need to remind them.

Lets Go Mets!!

Get Me a Crying Towel

 

Chancellor David Banks can’t seem to get out of his own way. He is under investigation as are so many others in Mayor Adams’ administration. He gets married to the Deputy Mayor, Sheila Wright this past weekend, who is also being federally investigated.

 

And now, although he offered to resign his position, effective December 31, Mayor Adams has decided to accelerate that date to October 16 when Melissa Aviles-Ramos is now going to take over.

Banks feels this is Adams making a “Hail Mary” pass to save his own postion. The brutal backroom maneuvering comes as the indicted Adams, besieged by federal investigations aimed at himself and his top officials, appears to be working to maintain the trust of Governor Kathy Hochul and keep his job.

Seems right. But Adams has the right to do this.

Rather than accept his fate, Banks is crying to anyone who will listen to how unjust he is being treated by Mayor Adams. And how he is being disrespected.

As opposed to the people, the taxpayers and the CHILDREN of the City of New York he supposed to be working for.

Stop the tears, David, take your pension and just go away.

On Getting Caught In a Lie

Funny thing about fact-checking. Sometimes, when you least expect it, you will see something happen which is quite embarrassing to the person being fact-checked. And there is no way can he say this fact-checker is full of it. 

It was all reported by Fox Business.

 

On Tuesday, during the Vice Presidential debate, Tampon Tim decided to claim something totally untrue about the Donald Trump Tax Cut. He said that the Trump-era tax cuts  "predominantly went to the top guys" and benefited America's wealthy.

“Donald Trump made a promise, and I'll give you this, he kept it. He took books to Mar-a-Lago, said: 'you're rich as hell, I'm going to give you a tax cut…' What happened? There was an $8 trillion increase in the national debt, the largest ever. Now he's proposing a 20% consumption or sales tax on everything we bring in. Everyone agrees, including businesses, it would be destabilizing. It would increase inflation and potentially lead to a recession," Walz said.

Great talking point. But a total lie.

In fact, he would not dare refute the source of the fact-check. If he only had read a little report on Tuesday morning, he would know he should not have made such a claim. Instead, he got caught

According to a September 2020 report from the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, middle income Americans are the ones who saw the "biggest decrease in total tax liability" between 2017 and 2018 when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went into effect.

That report was issued to the Senate, when Kammy was a member by an agency the Democrats weaponized under Obama called the Internal Revenue Service.

Oops.

I guess we were shown that he was either a bigger liar than we thought or just the dumbest person running in this election cycle. Which is it, Timbo?

You can’t go around saying something you should have known to be untrue, and then when you get caught, claim you “misspoke”. No Tim. You are a liar. Or dumb. Which is it?

And any good standing with Americans you thought you had, you have certainly lost. Because you LIED TO US. Big time.

And Americans do not forget that.

Tammany Hall Has A BIG Competitor

If it were not so serious, it actually would be very funny. Or at least, somewhat amusing.

 

The latest in “As The City Stinks” was reported this afternoon by the New York Post that a major donor to next-in-line New York City Public Advocate Juumane Williams also received campaign contributions from a contractor accused by the feds of setting up illegal straw donations to Hizzoner, records show

Williams received $5,000 in donations from Tolib Mansurov, a Uzbek American businessman who is identified as “Businessman-4” in the Adams indictment.

Obviously, Juumane’s hands are not clean and pure as all the Socialists and their media sycophants claim. It is amazing that every Socialist will compromise his “principles” for a little capitalist green.

So hold on, folks. The feds are not scraping through all the poop that is stinking up all levels of the City’s government. The holding of noses and breaths will have to continue.

Then, we will have to sit back to see who might be next to go down in history’s most corrupt City government, worse than Tammany Hall.

Why the Vice Presidential Debate Is a Waste of Time

No, I did not watch the Vice President debate last night. I will tell you why.

 

First. My mind is already made up who I am voting for. In fact, I made up my mind way back around January 21, 2021. The events since then have only made my belief in my decision deeper.

Second, when Donald Trump announced JD Vance as his running mate, I knew that he was a man who had been a “Never-Trumper” and saw the light. It is like when someone converts to a religion and proves to be more devout than one who was born and raised in it.

Third. The VP debate really does not reveal anything new for voters to consider. The needle practically does not move even one tick in either direction to influence a voter to change his mind. Even an independent voter may only wiggle the needle during the debate and for as many people who say they were finally decided one way, the same number move to the other direction.

Fourth. The ONLY memorable comment or line I  remember in the last forty years which came out in a VP debate was in 1988 when Lloyd Bentsen in his response to Dan Quayle’s statement about JFK was, ”I knew Jack Kennedy. And you, sir, are no Jack Kennedy.” Did that response affect the vote? No. Bush and Quayle still won.

To me, it is cheap political theater and a weak attempt to garner ratings for the network holding it. And within two news cycles, whatever was said, or deemed “important”, will fade away. And the choices will still be about the Presidental nominees.

And my choice is still Donald Trump.

A Golden Memory

Nancy and Frank McHale were married on a cold and rainy Sunday afternoon on October 2, 1949, some Seventy-Five years ago. They had both just turned twenty during that Summer; he in July, and she four days later, in August.

Back then, a man needed to have his parents’ permission to get married if he were under twenty-one, but a woman was considered mature enough to make her own decision at eighteen.

They had met in high school in December of ’46 in the school cafeteria in Queens, New York during lunch when he threw an ice cream cone at his friend. And missed. Instead, he hit her right on her skirt. She told him he would pay for that.

He did. For the rest of his life.

I told the story in a commentary called Toast To a Married Couple in December, 2023 and which was the Prologue in my first book, Life is But a Dream, available at www.Amazon.com.

Of course, it is family lore, which all of my siblings, their spouses and children knew. And their grandchildren heard it forever. Even some of their great-grandchildren heard it, or certainly, heard of it.

And we all bore witness.

They both have passed on, hopefully, to a better life than what they left behind. But, if I know Nancy and Frank, and as the eldest, I can swear this: he has taken her into his arms, tripping the lights fantastic, holding her tenderly as they sing to each other. As they always did.

And gave each other a passionate kiss when the dance was done.

Happy Golden Anniversary, Mom and Dad.

The Consequence of a Movie Line Coming To Life

There is a line in the movie The American President between the President and his Chief of Staff played by Michael Douglas and Martin Sheen which goes like this: Sheen - Never have an airline strike at Christmas? 

Douglas - I'm going to St. Louis.

 

Maybe the Harris-Biden regime needs to take a lesson from this.

It was reported today by Newsmax and others that dockworkers on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast began a strike early Tuesday, their first large-scale stoppage in nearly fifty years, halting the flow of about half the nation's ocean shipping after negotiations for a new labor contract broke down over wages.

It is thirty-six days until the most consequential election in our nation’s history. Amazingly, I had read a blurb reported in an online publication that Hillary Clinton was predicting a “major” October Surprise which would have a decided impact on this election. Against Kacklin’Kammy.

The impact of a strike will be devastating on the American economy. The strike blocks everything from food to automobile shipments across dozens of ports from Maine to Texas, in a disruption analysts warned will cost the economy billions of dollars a day, threaten jobs, and potentially stoke inflation.

But, of course, rather than heading to the negotiating table, the Kamster was still far away, out on the campaign trail and President Biden was resting at his Delaware Beach house over the weekend.

Not good optics for either of them.

Maybe the updated line for this regime should be: Never have a longshoreman strike before an election.

On the Passing of Pete Rose

Once again, the powers who run Major League Baseball have shown their stupidity and blinding disregard for one of Baseball History's immortals. It was announced by Yahoo Sports and others on Monday evening, on the eve of the 2024 Postseason, that Pete Rose passed. September 30 will forever be remembered as The MLB Day of Shame.

 

Pete Rose was, like many of us with human frailities, both a great player, and maybe not such a great person. He was accused in 1989 for betting on baseball and swore to high heaven that he NEVER made bets on his own team, either as a player or as a manager.

He was punished by former Commissioner Bart Giamatti with a ban for life. This ban prevented him for being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame for his many accomplishments ON THE FIELD, including the player with the most lifetime hits.

In April, 2015, I wrote a commentary called Pete Rose and Being In the Hall, where I discussed my reasons for lifting that ban. I reposted it many times, especially around the dates when the Hall of Fame results were announced and every summer around Hall of Fame Induction weekend.

This last posting in July, I mentioned that at 83, the Sands of Time were running out on forgiving him for something he may have done thirty-five years ago and that most criminals are granted parole after serving such a long sentence.

And I pointed out, that baseball owners are in partnership with gambling sites, like Draft Kings, MGM Bet, Fan Duel, ESPN BET and several other sites.

You can see the advertisements displayed on the stadium walls and scoreboards right next the the Budweiser, Miller and Coors Beer ads, while watching the game on TV or in the ballpark. And reps are hounding patrons with various in-stadium promotions to enroll subscribers, offering free seat upgrades and other enticements.

So, Rob Manfred needed to own up to his and MLB’s hypocrisy by not rescinding the ban before it was too late before he passed. And now, unfortunately, it is.

Lifting the ban now so that he could posthumously be inducted would not absolve MLB from this injustice. But by admitting it was perhaps over-zealous in its effort to keep the game pure, would be the right thing to do. For Pete’s family, for the fans and for Pete himself.

Rest In Peace, Charlie Hustle. From a loyal Mets Fan, one who loves all things Baseball and its rich history.

You will always be in My Hall of Fame.