Why Voting, Not Polling, Matters

Way back on April 21, 2014, I wrote a piece on polls and polling, quite simply called The Poll on Polls. I basically discussed the purpose and methodology on polling generally, and their accuracies and flaws, but that  on this particular poll, how it was used to obtain a desired result.

Guess what? The concept is still the same, with the same accuracies and flaws and attempts to spin it favorably.

And of course, the only poll that really matters is the actual poll completed on Primary or Election Day. THAT result is “un-spin-able.”

Well, as it happens, The New York Times and Siena College for years have conducted one of the most-watched national polls called, appropriately,  New York Times/Siena College poll. This was reported across all media outlets, including the New York Post.

The pollster, smugly, took this poll to support its belief that Kamala Harris was going to trounce Donald Trump after the Convention, and add impetus to her “ceiling-breaking” campaign, leaving the former President lost in her dust. Buzz!  Not this time! And the Times is shocked.

Instead, Donald Trump edged out Kammy Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally. And, not surpringly, other polls have similarly begun to show the 45th president regaining ground against his rival, now that the Democratic National Convention has wrapped up.

What does it all mean? Well, with fifty-seven days until Election Day, not really a whole helluva lot. After all, in 2016, at this point, Hillary Clinton was leading by double digits and the media was already fitting HER with a crown, preparing for HER coronation. 

And how did THAT turn out?

So, a poll taken at a point of time MAY give an indication how the election MAY turn out, since it isn’t about ALL the people who vote, it is only a sample. The pollster always cites its margin of error. Just to save face and play it safe.

So, all of us will watch each poll as it is taken and determine how accurate it really is as we root for our candidate to show he or she has pulled away, taking that, allegedly, “insurmountable” lead.

And if you rely on the polls to be accurate, and decide you have something more imperative and important to do on Election Day, like watching grass grow, on November 6, you just might wake up disappointed.