The Iraqi-Afghani-Iranian Empire Connection

The news had been quiet in the Iraq front, with all the stories about the VA, Bergdahl and the Taliban, the President's trips to Afghanistan and Europe, and just Tuesday, the seismic shift in the Congressional Leadership. 

On Wednesday, I found a story which appeared both in the AP online news site and in the Wednesday evening online edition of the New York Times.

Since we left in 2011, Iraq has increasingly experienced turmoil because the Iraqi government and army are weak. The Sunnis, Saddam Hussein's sect of Islam, have taken control of Mosul and are on the verge of capturing Tikrit, Saddam's family city.

English: Image from Iraqi state television. Reproduced here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1119969.stm Category:Arab nationalists (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Because we were unable to secure a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Shiite-led government before we were forced to leave, the Iraq we left behind is probably going to fall this year. I say that with some certainty because the government was never really stable, even when we were there.

Now, the Sunni insurgency has affiliated itself with the al-Qaeda group, the Islamic State of Iraq. In numbers there is strength. Between this united group, the northern part of Iraq outside Kurdistan is virtually controlled by al-Qaeda. In addition, this same group is responsible for the turmoil in eastern Syria.

Turkey, a NATO ally, is mulling the possibility to involve itself because it too has a large Kurdish minority. Turkey's fear is that the Kurds in Iraq will flee across its border and cause problems for Turkey.

 I bring all this up because the United States and its coalition allies in Afghanistan have entered into a SOFA in that country, where approximately 10,000 troops will remain after 2014. While I agree we need to leave Afghanistan, leaving 10,000 troops in harms way is absolutely asinine.

Afghanistan is a large, backward country, which, like Iraq, has a tribal system of self rule outside the "central government." The national army in Afghanistan is really not loyal to the government; instead, each soldier's loyalties are to his tribe.

President Obama has announced that these American troops will stay until 2016. I am not really clear when the final withdrawal will occur, but I imagine he will tie it to the 2016 election and politicize this withdrawal, as he has with everything else. 

On January 22, I wrote a commentary called “Time to Come Home” where I called for the President to bring home all the troops. As I also indicated, the Taliban will wait us out and once we leave, they will flood into Afghanistan and will fill the void we leave behind.

What we are witnessing now in Iraq will soon be the order of the day in Afghanistan. The Afghanis really don't want us there, and quite frankly, leaving Americans in country serves no purpose other than to be target practice.

As the Iraqis are learning now, Afghanis will soon learn the same lessons. The end of Iraq will soon be here and the end of Afghanistan will soon follow. And, what then will happen?

 Did you ever hear of the Persian Empire? Its modern-day cousin, in the form of the Iranian Islamist Theocracy, with nuclear weapons, will eventually resolve both Iraq and Afghanistan, at the cost of years of American blood and billions of dollars of American treasure. 

 I know the Mullahs and Ayatollahs are chomping at the bit to flex its muscle in the region, but were reluctant to do so while there was a strong American presence. Soon, they will.

You can bet on it.