The Trump - McCarthy Dynamic

 

Former President Donald Trump was asked by the New York Post about his view on who should be elected Speaker on January 3. He believes it should be Kevin McCarthy and gave his reasons for why, especially in light of the Boehner to Ryan disaster in 2015.

 While I agree with the former President that was a disaster, it truly does not explain the reason the anti-McCarthy fallout would destroy the legitimacy of a Republican Speakership, since a worst-case scenario would result in a Democrat-elected Speaker.

 Presently, the Republican-controlled House majority stands at 223, five more than the 218 needed to win the Speakership. But if my math is right, then should McCarthy lose six votes, giving him only 217, the whole speakership would be subject to wheels and deals, and eventually, a Democrat (Pelosi?) could somehow be elected Speaker. Just to end the donnybrook.

 What then to committee assignments, chairs and even the flawed Jan 6 committee? Two more years of turmoil, brought on by the pettiness of Andy Biggs, Matt Gaetz and others who had found McCarthy to be too moderate for their taste.

 The American people voted to end Pelosi’s Speakership in November, believing that she (and other Democrats) had overstayed their welcome. They believed they had “fired” her and her cronies to hand over the House to the Republicans to keep the Democrat-controlled Senate in check, knowing that the Executive branch was still in Democrat hands, and not allowing one-party rule to destroy this Constitutional Republic, as was happening these last two years, and maybe since the early part of 2020 when Donald Trump went along with the Democrat-controlled Congress as the pandemic exploded in our faces.

 But enough was enough. It was time to stop the runaway pork gravy train and place a stop-check in place. And while Kevin McCarthy is not a true conservative by anyone’s definition, he is a shrewd politician who understands what his role would be in a fractured government. A STOP sign. A “do not pass go and do not collect $200” roadblock.

 Because if he doesn’t see it this way, he and the Republican Party will lose in 2024. As will Gaetz and Biggs and his other adversaries.

 And of course, Donald Trump would also be the biggest loser in his quest to recapture the Presidency. He understands that even if he doesn’t say it. He isn’t an idiot, even though the media makes him out to be.  That’s why he wants McCarthy. He is a party guy. But he is really all about Trump.

And believe it or not, supporting McCarthy is Trump’s best shot to become President again. You can be sure Kevin McCarthy understands the dynamic being played out here.

The proverbial clock is ticking fast to January 3. What will be the result? Only the political gods know for sure. For the rest of us, we will find out in sixteen days.

 Hang on tight.